COVID19, COVID19
We have been shouting this word for two years already. Since then, the world has made a considerable progress in fighting Covid19. With the recent approval of Merck and Pfizer’s oral treatment, the world seems to be brightening up. Few days ago, travel-related stock prices soared in the United States. I heard that number of air ticket bookings are rapidly increasing, and sales of travel bags are also growing crazy. We could say our stay-home related consumption changed and grew but will stop growing someday . I guess no one would ever buy two running machines at home. People who had bought enough alcohol disinfectant which lasts for few years will not buy extra for the next months to come.
I am sure people tend to have favor in visiting other places and exploring various things. It is the instinct of social animals to join various people, to talk, to laugh, to cry, to get angry, and to feel happy. If there were only one person in the world, he or she would never feel any stress, and on the contrary, would never feel happy. People will always choose the happy place if they have two choices of happy and unhappy places.
Only 2% in Our Life
We will surely start striking back against COVID19. Fight with vaccination and oral medicines in their pockets. With these weapons, people will begin traveling again in search of fun. They look for places where they can grow more. Let us say, our life continues for one hundred years. We had just been paddling and waiting for a wave during the past 2 years (Only 2 of 100% ). It was a nice meditation period! We are ready to ride the next huge wave.
Market Situation Autumn 2021 ～Fourth Wave in Elliott
Looking at the market, the U.S. stock market is up tremendously. Their momentum is similar to that of the peak of the Japanese bubble. In terms of Elliott Wave, the basic pattern is to have three large upward waves, but this time, it has been extended to its fourth wave. Although various explanations are made, with monetary easing and a surplus of money, money is flowing into the securities market. This situation has caused companies with market capitalizations of several trillion yen, such as Tesla and NVIDIA, to increase in price by 5% in one single day. Before the fourth wave started, people seemed to forget that we were talking about tapering and inflation in the past.
Brent crude oil in the North Sea has been settling down in the $80 range, but in terms of climate change, a La Niña event is expected this year in 2021. The actual occurrence of this phenomenon will cause extremely cold winters in some areas. As a result, commodity prices (grain prices) are expected to rise. This rise and the acceleration of inflation due to rising labor costs could cause a sudden turn to the downside when people start talking about whether the timing of interest rate hikes will be accelerated. When Nikkei 225 hit 38,915JPN at the end of 1989, people were expecting 50,000JPN next year.
Who knows what the future holds.
However, we are certainly in the midst of a historic event and a historic market.
Masahiko KUMADA / MAC
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