Japanese population will be below 50 million?
Did you know that by the year 2100, Japanese population will be below 50 million?
I knew about population decline of course … but 50 million?
I had recently been staying home in my room under Singapore’s SHN(The Stay-Home Notice) period,imagining what will the world be like with a small number of people.
The year 2100
I will not be there for sure.
There might be a little possibility that my daughters are still alive.
Current Japanese population 127 million will decrease to its half, 50 million.
Tokyo might turn out to be a town much easier to walk around with less people.
How about the countryside with population decrease?
Will it be a ghost town?
In addition, in such a situation,
it must be a super-aging society.
What would happen to economy?
Will everyone be rich with few sharing accumulated wealth?
With plenty of money, would hyperinflation happen?
In the economy with less buyers,
what would happen to all the manufactural facilities build up by the people?
Would TOYOTA be producing cars?
Would they keep their balance with less producers and less buyers?
Would public buildings like schools and hospitals be demolished into half?
‘’Anything one man can imagine; other men can make real.’’
I could hardly imagine…
There is a word by Jules Gabriel Verne,
‘’Anything one man can imagine; other men can make real.’’
I tried my best to imagine it.
Many people from all over the world will immigrate to Japan in the year 2100.
In the world, people with variety of race and ethnic will be living together.
COVID19 outbreak occurred at a time when Japan was just about to open the doors of Japanese residency to the world.
At that time, the number of tourists from overseas had increased considerably, and various preparations were being made for the Tokyo Olympics.
It is not that the Japanese government worked hard to attract tourists so many people visited,
but rather that Japan was a cheap and cost-effective travel destination in the eyes of the world at that time.
Below are the GDP increases trends, compared to 1990 (about 30 years ago)
Japan: 1.2 times
China: 47 times
USA: 3.6 times.
Singapore: 7.1 times.
In other words, while Japan has changed extraordinarily little, the countries around it have become prosperous many times.And the prices in Japan are cheap! That is why people come to Japan to shop.
A lot of people from China, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand were traveling here.
If going to Japan is an expensive trip, no matter how much the Japanese government campaigns to attract people, it is not an easy trip to take. It is like the dream of Japanese people traveling Hawaii in the past.
If Japan’s low cost of living, affordable housing, and beautiful four seasons are combined
with the Japanese government’s ability to attract a workforce, the number of immigrants from overseas will quickly increase.
Coincidentally, living with COVID19, it is becoming more and more common for people to work from home. Aside from the debate on whether it is good or bad, you can work from home and have Zoom meetings efficiently. In their spare time, we can trade stocks online and children enjoy playing online games.
Shopping is also done through Amazon with packages arriving every day.
I do not think this Staying-Home life will not last forever.
People miss going out.
People desire encountering new and interesting things waiting outside.
However, there is no doubt that
where you live will become more important than where you work.
It won’t take decades for the system to widespread once it is ready, in the situation where the world is connected at the same time by internet.
If the Japanese government establishes a certain system and calls for it, Information will be shared before you know,
people from all over the world will come in the blink of an eye.
When I was still young in school,we still had little chance to see foreigners.
I had been staring at them with curiosity when I bumped into foreigners.
We could hardly meet mixed race kids.
Nowadays, I am living in an environment surrounded by foreigners.
(Oh, I was the one who is a foreigner here.)
We also see quite a lot of mixed-race celebrities on TV.
In year 2100,
I wonder what the official language in Japan would be with variety of race and ethnic.
I would also imagine population decrease will slow down,
The number of populations will settle down somewhere between 50 million and 127 million.
We Need to Grasp What will Happen from Population Decline
I do not know if my selfish imagination will come true or not.
However, there is no doubt that if things continue as they are, Japan’s population will be 50 million in 80 years.
There is no way that a world of 125 million people and a world of 50 million people can be the same.
This is a reality that we need to grasp.
Masahiko KUMADA / MAC
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